Blue Dragon: How Wales could define the 2017 General Election

Blue Dragon: How Wales could define the 2017 General Election

Wales is divided into 40 constituencies for representation in the House of Commons. The Labour Party currently holds 25 of those seats with the Conservatives in second with 11; social-democratic Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru holding 3 and the Liberal Democrats holding a single seat. Labour has been the dominant political force in the nation since the 1929 election, holding at least 37.5% of the constituencies since that time. June 8th’s snap election is already being called ‘the election made in Wales’ in reference to Prime Minister Theresa May’s comment that she made the decision to call an early election while on a walking holiday in Snowdonia. However could this also be the election decided in Wales? Here are four reasons why this might be the case.

1. Wales’ slow blue shift: Over the course of the last three elections (2005, 2010 and 2015), the Conservative party has slowly been increasing their share of Welsh seats, moving from 3 to 8 to 11 with their 2015 result marking a 32 year high. Two of the three seats won in 2015 were taken from Labour, albeit with the slimmest majority of the election with 27 in Gower and a meagre 237 in the Vale of Clwyd. However, Gower had been held continuously by Labour since 1910, with an average majority of 10,220. And the loss of Gower in 2015 may have been a sign of things to come. Theresa May has visited Wales five times in three months, suggesting serious Conservative ambition in the country and a recent article from the BBC showed some of the thoughts of Welsh voters, many of whom were lifelong Labour voters considering the shift to Conservative for one reason or another. It is still too early to tell what will happen but if polls hold and the trends of the last few elections are anything to go by, a blue shift in the west might be the Tory’s saving grace.

Byron Davies
Bryon Davies, MP for Gower, will be hoping to push his majority to a more stable figure

2. Seeing red over Brexit: Wales voted in favour of leaving the European Union and this has put the voters at odds with their Labour MPs, 21 (out of the 25 in Wales) of whom had said they backed the Remain campaign. In contrast, only 3 of the 11 Conservatives in Wales publicly backed remaining in the European Union. While the decision over Brexit was largely seen as a personal decision, one to be made by each voting individual, it does show a lack of local representation if you vote one way and your MP backs the other. This could be especially dangerous for Labour, given the wave of calls for voters to oust Leave supporting MPs. While the party leaders seek to show that this is not simply an election about Brexit, it is definitely a factor considered by many voters, especially young and first time voters, the people who the ramifications of Brexit will affect.

Wales Brexit
Welsh support for Brexit could be a fatal thorn in Labour’s side

3. High stakes: The 2017 election is not exactly a safe one for either of the main two parties (Labour and Conservative). While the polls have the Tories far out in front, they are going into the election defending a majority of 17. While this does give them the advantage, it does mean that the other contesting parties (Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, Green and Plaid Cymru (I would include the SNP but there is only one Conservative seat in Scotland)) only need to take 18 seats from the Conservatives across all 650 constituencies to create a minority government. However, this does mean that Labour especially need to be on the defensive. If the Tories were to win, say, four seats in Wales, that is four seats that Labour would need to make up elsewhere in the country. And while calls have been to unify in order to strategically beat the Tories, a united front is yet to appear, meaning Labour needs to keep its seats, meaning Labour needs to keep Wales.

Bad Poker Hand
Labour has not been dealt with best hand at this point in the campaign

4. The potential inverse: Polls can be wrong- they certainly were in 2015 and while unlikely, Wales could be the starting point for the Labour comeback. An outright Labour victory is very unlikely, as they would need to turn 97 seats plus any additional seats needed in the event that they lose seats. However, Wales is still red for the time being- Labour is currently the polling favourite in local elections, due to take place on May 4th, and it isn’t a simple thing for a lifelong Labour supporter to suddenly cross the aisle. If Labour can defy the polls, the 15 seats held by other parties in Wales may help, at the least very, force Theresa May and the Conservatives into a minority government. While it’s not the Labour government Corbyn dreams of, a minority government would certainly be a victory for the parties opposed to the current government.

Jeremy Corbyn
Corbyn defied expectations once, can he do it again?

The election is still 42 days away and a lot can happen in that time but Wales is already shaping up to be a battleground without precedent. For the Conservatives, gains in Wales will help ease them into a comfortable majority while Labour will need to hold firm or make gains or their own if they want any chance to make their opponents in blue sweat on the night of June 8th.

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Donald Trump is not a Nazi

Donald Trump is not a Nazi

Campaign 2016 Clinton Sanders

With Senator Sanders endorsing Hilary Clinton in the past few days, the 2016 Presidential election will be contested by former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump.

Now, if you are familiar with my blog, you will know that I have written a lot on the electoral process so far. However, I have been careful to avoid some of Trump’s more controversial remarks and beliefs. However, as Trump’s position has become increasingly official, I have heard one word in particular used to describe him- Nazi.

I have no love or respect for Donald Trump and I do not want for this piece to be interpreted as any kind of defence for Trump’s words or actions, but Donald Trump is not a Nazi.

White Supremacy

First, let’s breakdown the hierarchy of vocabulary associated with racial hatred and racial superiority. At the base, the most widely-appliable term is ‘white supremacy’. White supremacy is the belief that people of Caucasian heritage are the superior race on Earth and should be afforded liberties and privileges afforded with said superiority. They also believe that those who are not part of this superior race should have to willing submit to their white masters.

Fascism

Then you have ‘fascism’, the political ideology that liberal democracy is an obselete concept and that a totalitarian one-party state is the only viable form of government. In practice, this gives way to fierce nationalist beliefs and often white supremacist control of the nation, especially as fascism has only largely been seen in practice in European nations.

Nazi

Finally we have the most specific term- Nazi. Nazi is a colloquial term for the National Socialist German Workers’ Party and describes the governing political party of Germany between 1933 and 1945. The word can also be used to describe members of this party.The Nazis are the ‘best known’ for starting the Second World War and instigating ‘The Final Solution’ in 1942, which would led to the death of six million Jews, as well as hundreds of thousands of Romani, political prisoners, homosexuals and other groups deemed unfit to live by the Nazis.

Now, let’s start grouping things together. Groups like the KKK, the American Freedom Party, the National Party of Europe, the British National Party, Blood and Honour and individuals like Tom Metzger are what can be described as white supremacists or at the very least, white nationalists. They believe that whites should be given priority treatment as they are the superior race. At the more moderate end of the spectrum, they want to protect their historically white nations from the ‘threat’ of immigrants and ‘inferior’ races.

Then there’s fascism this is a lot less prevalent since the fall of the fascist regimes of the 1940s and later, the collapse of General Franco’s Spanish regime. ‘Neo-facism’ is often applied to groups, especially political organisations, who carry some of the core beliefs of fascism or have expressed admiration for Hitler, the Nazis, previous fascist regimes etc. This has been across the world, with movements such as military coup that took control of Bolivia in 1980; the PFI and their ideas of Indonesia Mulia, a concept similar to Hitler’s ‘Greater Germany’ vision and the previously mentioned British National Party, whose white nationalism is based on a platform of fascist ideology.

Finally, we have the specific term ‘Nazi’. Many nations around the world have legislation in place to make it a crime to identify as a Nazi, which is why we see a rise in neo-fascism rather than neo-Nazism. While some nations have groups that call themselves the -Insert country name here- Nazi Party, there is a much bigger debate to be had about whether a Nazi Party can truly exist today or whether Nazi should only refer to the party that exist in 1930s.

If I was forced to pick one term to describe Donald Trump, it would be white nationalist. While some of what he has said is racist, such as his comment that the people coming over the US border from Mexico were “bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists.” but overall, a lot of what Trump says and does indicates a white nationalist platform more than anything else- remove illegal immigrants the country, a majority of whom are Latin American; ban Muslims regardless of nationality from the entering the United States; ban refugees from entering the United States. Those are policies that would ‘protect’ the white majority in America.

But why is it so bad to mislabel Trump as a ‘Nazi’? Well, a while back I wrote a piece about how Nazis, among other groups of people, had been turned into a trope through overuse within popular culture. Throughout the late 90s and early 2000s, it was ‘gay’ that was used as the throwaway insult but beneath that, Nazi has also been that insult we always keep in our arsenal to describe something we think it overly oppressive or tyrannical. Continual labelling of things as being like the Nazis or being like Nazi Germany trivalises the Nazis because you would be hard-pressed to find something truly worthy of being compared to a political and military regime that systematically murder six million civilians.

Trump is a horrible human being with some truly terrible ideas about what to do to America if he wins the Presidency but he is not a Nazi. You will not find proof that he is the member of any Nazi, or neo-fascist organisation and there are better, more effective ways to show what sort of man Trump is than labelling himself as something he is not.

The US election: What to expect

The US election: What to expect

Next month, barring divine intervention, Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton will be named the Republican and Democratic Presidential nominees respectively. From August till November,  the American people will be caught in the full metal jacket of election season. Here’s what they, and the rest of curious, confused world can expect:

Trump

1. Smear campaigns: You think Trump was bad when he was running against Ted Cruz and John Kasich? That was pee-wee tag football compared to the NFL-level of professional smear that Trump will be aiming at the Clinton campaign. He will be careful of course, mentioning Whitewater would leave him vulnerable to that odd trend of Trump investing in real estate that suddenly goes bust. Meanwhile Benghazi, emails and even the Lewinsky Scandal will be all in Trump’s sights. In the Democratic camp, Hilary will try to maintain the high ground by only attacking Trump’s speeches, policies and anti-Presidential qualities (lack of experience, abrasive and undiplomatic demeanour). However, that could quickly change, especially if the polls stay  close. This could quickly devolve into a shit-slinging contest as opposed to a Presidential election.

Hilary- I could taste the victory

2. ‘The most unpopular election in history’: Trump and Clinton are not popular candidates- Trump has middle America in the palm of his hand but is facing an uphill battle within the party (latest update: the GOP is considering allowing convention delegates to declare a conscientious objection in place of a vote at the convention) while Hilary has the backing of the DNC but is struggling to raise support amongst voters, especially the die-hard core of the Sanders campaign, 15% of whom may actually go to back Trump after the convention.This will be an election of “who is lesser evil” and not “who is going to serve this country the best”. While both Hilary and Trump are unpopular, America feels that they either need to vote for Trump or Hilary or just not vote, because there isn’t a viable third option.

Midwest

3. The battle for the Midwest: While most regions of America have a historical political leaning, such as the southern Republican stronghold. The same can’t be said for the Midwest, a collection of states that stretches from Ohio to the Dakotas. It has swung back and forth between Democrats and Republicans but while it has been increasingly blue since 2000, Bernie won the Midwest 7 states to 5 during the primaries, which could potentially open up for a Republican spearhead, especially as a majority of the state-level governments are already Republican controlled. Both parties know this and so the Midwest will become a fierce battleground as it could be the key to an election victory.

What do you think America can expect before November? Let me know in the comments below!

Curtain Call

Curtain Call

There may still be one last Democratic primary but it’s little more than an encore after last night’s final ‘Super Tuesday’. Supporters still feeling the Bern were hoping for some sort of voting miracle in order to overturn Hilary’s comfortable cushion of superdelegates but as you’ll soon see, it was less of a miracle and more of a sermon on accepting reality.

Six states went to the polls over the course of Tuesday with the biggest prize being the 475 delegates available in California. Across the other five states (The Dakotas, Montana, New Jersey and New Mexico), Hilary was carrying predicted leads in every where apart from Montana, which projected a narrow Bernie victory, and the Dakotas, which were too close to call. Opinion was divided over with California, with the polls shifting back and forth.

However, as precincts from Trenton to Santa Barbara began to declare, it was clear that there was only going to be one winner. Despite being close in the polls, California (as of writing, 6% of precincts are yet to declare) swung for the former first lady and she carries the state with a 12.9% lead and 257 delegates to Bernie’s 188. Things were unsurprisingly worse for Bernie in New Jersey, where Hilary beat him by 26.6%. The rest of the night’s results were closer- Hilary won New Mexico by 3% while Bernie took North Dakota and Montana. South Dakota proved to be the closest battleground of the night with Hilary taking the state by 2% but the 20 delegates being split 50-50. Overall, the night was just what Hilary needed- a way to cement her already comfortable lead.

But what does this mean for the Democrat’s race? Well nothing can be confirmed until the Philadelphia convention in July but at this point, it seems like game, set and match. Bernie’s only hope lies with the superdelegates but unfortunately for the Vermont senator, they are either already backing Hilary or unlikely to back a candidate who is trailing so badly. However, Hilary must now think long and hard about to deal with her party’s sizeable split- while 55% of Bernie supporters have said they would vote for Hilary at the general election, 15% have also said that they would go across the aisle and support Trump. If Hilary doesn’t find a way to appease Bernie’s supporters, she may have lost this race.

Over on the Republican front, Trump continues to use the remainder of the primary season to try to convince the Republicans for back him. While he has made headway, with party higher-ups such as Paul Ryan now backing him, but his largest problem is how he has no coherent campaign- even now he is the presumptive nominee, it is still all vague promises, general policy ideas and superlatives.

So buckle up kids, once the conventions are over, the whole process starts again and it won’t be pretty. From Trump you can expect sexism, intern jokes, property development jokes and general jackassery. Meanwhile, Hilary is going to hammer home Trump’s lack of experience and his general jackassery, all the while fighting to keep her party unified.

I have a feeling 2016 will be an election to remember.

President Trump

President Trump

Now that he is the presumptive Republican nominee and Bernie is continuing to keep Hilary busy, Donald Trump has just under a month of free campaign time. When he visits states between now and June 7th, the last day of primaries, he doesn’t have to waste telling people why he’s better than Ted Cruz or John Kasich, he can simply tell people why he should be the next President of the United States. Now there’s been a lot of speculation about what a Trump presidency would look like- carpet ban on Muslims entering the United States? A huge wall running across the Mexican border? People freely carrying everything from a Derringer to a .50 sniper rifle? Well, in all likelihood, a Trump presidency would actually be pretty boring. Why? I’m glad you asked.

Firstly, it’s no secret that the House Republicans, aka the people who get stuff done, do not like Trump. While the House, if controlled by the President’s party, will almost always ensure to pass President-friendly legislation but the Representatives and Senators have no outstanding loyalty to Trump- for all intents and purpose he is an ordinary registered Republican  running for President. This dislike and lack of loyalty could hamper Trump’s ambition plans if he ever does reach the oval office. Even worse, this year is a Congressional election year and a Democrat controlled house could spell doom for Trump if the Democrats, say, decided to block every piece of Trump and Republican legislation, just like they did with Obama.

On a similar note, Trump doesn’t seem to be aware that things don’t just magically appear. His wall, his Muslim ban, his second amendment freedoms all would have to survive Congressional votes. Let’s take the border wall as an example- 59% of Americans oppose the wall. That is not a number you want looming over you when you are running for office again. The Congressional battles are already starting with Republicans in swing districts meeting with Merrick Garland earlier this year in an attempt to hold onto their seats. And even if his projects get passed, estimates for his bold plan to mass evict every illegal immigrant sit at the $114bn and 20 years (or 5 Presidential terms to complete) mark while his “huge wall” that would separate Mexico and the United States would cost $4bn-$24bn and would have to involve taking down the intricately woven border fence that is currently there. But remember, Trump also wants to do this while apparently cutting trade with everyone apart from really poor countries that could be easily dominated by the United States. In essence, Trump kind of wants to bankrupt America in order to help fund his little pet projects.

Thirdly, Trump would not be Trump in office. On the campaign trail, we’ve been seeing the crass, loudmouth who told a contestant on his reality show that the mental image of her on her knees was a “pretty picture” and spends his rallies making fun of his opponents. Trump rallies look like terrible standup nights where the patrons show their appreciation by rioting. However, that isn’t the Trump we’d see in office- sure he’d been a ‘tough’ President but who respects a President who goes round calling women fat pigs? Trump would most certainly clean up his image before setting foot in the Oval Office because image is one of the few things he genuinely cares about.

Overall, I don’t think there would be anything wrong with a Trump Presidency, I just think there wouldn’t be anything right with one either. Trump is a cruel, bitter man unsuited for leading a country and electing him President would just cause the nation to become stagnant and weak.

What do you think a Trump Presidency would entail? Let me know in the comments below!

Ben talks politics: The Presidential Primaries II

Ben talks politics: The Presidential Primaries II

Last night, a glimmering white house came over the horizon for both the Republicans and the Democrats, indicating that the end of the primaries road is near. Both sets of candidates were battling it out in five north-eastern states- Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island and the results may just be what’s needed for this chaotic year of primaries to end cleanly. Let’s take a look:

Democrats

The setup: Both Bernie and Hilary were battle on home soil- Vermont is slightly to the north of the night’s battleground while New York borders two of the states that were up for grabs. The night could have been Bernie’s in all fairness- 3 of the 5 states (Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island) are small middle class states with low diversity, just the sort of states he’s been winning all season. Meanwhile, the size and diversity of Pennsylvania and Maryland would make victory there more difficult for the firebrand independent. Meanwhile, Hilary was relying on her continuing momentum and general advantages to try to effectively close out Bernie. The results: It wasn’t as clean as Hilary would have liked but she got the job done. In Connecticut, she won by 5%, carving herself up the middle of the state, taking the urban votes in the counties with the most precincts, leaving Bernie to gobble up the rural scraps. Delaware was a lot more comfortable with Hilary kicking Bernie to the curb and securing a win by 30%. Speaking of 30%, that was the margin in the Maryland race as well with Hilary sweeping the state, leaving Bernie to pick up three counties out of twenty-four (and even then, he only won by 119 votes in Garrett county, 158 in Allegany county and 170 in Carroll county). Pennsylvania saw more another tight win for Hilary as she took the state with 55% to Bernie’s 43%. Hilary’s win was largely cemented by taking the urban centres such as Harrisburg and Philadelphia compared to Bernie’s rural stronghold, where voter populations are typically much smaller. Finally, in Rhode Island, Hilary was denied a perfect run as Bernie comfortably took the second smallest prize of the night. The impact: Hilary’s prize of 194 pushed her over the 2000 delegate mark and within touching distance of the nomination. She stands at 2141, only 242 away from the nomination. Her 519 superdelegates certainly help but at this point, it’s hard to deny that she is the favoured candidate. Meanwhile, Bernie vows to fight until DC on June 14th but the dream is over. There are 11 states to go and sure, while he will mostly like win some of them, he would have to pull off the greatest upset in political history to secure the nomination, or at the very least, secure a contested convention. However, his commitment to the cause while certainly remind Hilary she hasn’t won yet as the campaign trails moves to Indiana for its May 3rd primary. Even if Hilary somehow took every delegate in each upcoming primary, she wouldn’t secure the nomination until June 4th, after the Virgin Islands closed caucus. The end of the Democratic race with certainly be an inch by inch crawl, not a sprint finish.

Insight- The Bernie Effect: When Hilary Clinton announced her bid for the Presidency on April 12th 2015, she was undeniably confident- she had been waiting for a solid shot at the White House since the 90s. She had come close in 2008, only to be denied by Obama. Her confidence only grew as nationally unknown candidates Bernie Sanders, Martin O’Malley and Lincoln Chaffee came out as her opposition- 2o16 was her year. But something happened- Bernie Sanders, her only rival once primary season got fully underway, actually proved to be formidable opponent. Sure, he wasn’t threatening her position as front-runner but he was certainly a force to be reckoned with. He was winning the youth vote and he appealed to the rural, working class Americans. He was taking the demographics she would need to stop the Republicans reclaiming the White House. Hilary better be careful how she proceeds after securing the nomination as snubbing Bernie or his supporters might just cost her the White House.

Republicans

The setup: After a week of turmoil, with Cruz and Kasich teaming up like the worst dynamic duo (“Lookout America! It’s TPT and his sidekick Ohio ‘Moderate’!”) in America, it came to the north-eastern block, which Trump was heavily favoured to win. The results: Trump did not drop a single county over the course of the night. He won by 29% in Connecticut, 40% in Delaware, 31% in Maryland, 35% in Pennsylvania and 39% in Rhode Island, putting him on 950 delegates. If Trump were to win every delegate from here on out, the nomination would be his on the last day on the Republican primary schedule. And with many of the remaining states delegating their delegates via a winner takes all system, Trump could still be the outright nominee. However, this would be that he has to win every state from now on. Kasich has backed off Indiana, a winner takes all state, in accordance with the deal he struck with Cruz, meaning that Cruz could deny Trump 57 delegates there. 57 delegates isn’t too bad, Trump could make up for that (with a 6 delegate loss) by winning allied state New Jersey’s winner takes all on June 7th. In return, Cruz has backed off in New Mexico and Oregon, a total of 52 delegates. However, both states do delegate proportionally but this bad news for Trump given Kasich came second in 4 of 5 primaries held last night. Oregon delegates to every candidates with at least 3.75% of the vote while New Mexico stands with the more traditional 15%. Still, that’s 52 delegates Trump can’t just win snatch up. Much like the Democratic race, the Republican primary season is going to come down to the wire.

Ben talks politics: 4 ways the US election could turn out

Ben talks politics: 4 ways the US election could turn out

It’s hard to avoid news of the US presidential election, even with just less than 7 months to go until the Democrats and Republicans square off for control of the White House. So, rather than admonish the electoral system or preach the dangers of voting for a certain Republican candidate, let’s look forward to the National Conventions and beyond, and discuss 5 ways the US Presidential election could play out come November:

  1. Hillary Clinton (Democrat) v. Donald Trump (Republican): This race is by far the most likely- Hillary  needs 627 from 1914 remaining delegates to win, while Trump needs 494 from 867 to secure a definitive majority. While most polling services give this match-up to Hillary (with a the latest Marist poll from April 7th giving her 9 point victory over Mr Trump), this election would be interesting due to the stark differences in the voter demographics they attract- Hillary is winning the female vote and the vote of the ethnic minorities whereas Trump is winning the votes of those who didn’t get a college degree and those who are tired of the current political system. However, neither candidate polls well among younger voters or independents, meaning that this may be a race to capture the hearts of the established America, rather than the generation to come. However the candidates choose to campaign, Trump polls woefully as a general election candidate amongst Republicans and so, unless she managed to screw up beyond belief, this would be a pretty safe victory for Hillary Clinton.
  2. Hillary Clinton (Democrat) v. Ted Cruz (Republican) v. Donald Trump (Independent): After a decisive win in Wisconsin on April 5th, Ted Cruz made a brokered Republican convention all the more likely. Heading into New York and beyond, Donald Trump needs to secure 57% of the remaining delegates in order to win the nomination outright. Sidebar: Here’s the 4-1-1 on a broker convention- especially at the Republican National Convention, there can be several rounds of voting. In the first round of voting, delegates must cast a vote for the candidate they are pledged to. However, if no candidate gains the 54% of delegates needed for an outright majority, all delegates become unpledged and are free to side with any candidate in subsequent rounds of voting. This leads to a lot of backdoor deals- say, get your delegates to vote for me and I’ll throw your state a bone after November or say, get your delegates to vote for me and there’s a cabinet position in it for you.Due to Trump’s overall unpopularity, a brokered convention is the perfect way for the GOP to field their preferred candidate,possible Zodiac Killer Ted Cruz. The big GOP fear is that they won’t be able to control Trump if he gains control of the nation’s executive branch, whereas Cruz is a Republican darling who can somewhat unite the party. There’s only one problem with this- Trump is a man who has never been told no, which explains so much about his behaviour. If he doesn’t get the nomination, one of two things will happen- he runs as an independent and takes enough votes away from Cruz to hand Hillary the victory OR he kicks up enough of a fuss about running as an independent that the GOP gives in and gives him a position of political power. The general consensus is that the GOP is facing a Catch-22- nominate Trump and lose the election due to his unpopularity or don’t nominate Trump and lose the election as he takes the voter base with him.
  3. Hillary Clinton (Democrat) v. X (Republican): Here’s a thing about a brokered convention- pretty much anyone could get elected. That’s right, if the first round of voting does not yield a nominee, delegates are free to vote for anyone. This was curbed by the Republicans in 2012 with something called Rule 40b but that rule has not been enacted for the 2016 convention. There has been much speculation about this decision by the Republican National Committee, with some pundits speculating that there may be a dark horse, such as Mitt Romney, waiting in the wings to sweep in and unite the party. However, it is more likely that if things went to brokered convention for the Republicans, the powers that be would push for unification behind Cruz and not a candidate they hadn’t field-tested during the primaries. Furthermore, the nomination of an individual not previously running would probably push Trump to run as an independent, citing the constitution or whatever it is he does when he doesn’t get his way. In addition, with Cruz and Kasich both saying that they wouldn’t endorse Trump if he was nominated, an unforeseen convention nominee would have to truly be something special to unify the GOP.
  4. Bernie Sanders (Democrat) v. Donald Trump (Republican): Unlikely due to Hillary’s strong lead in the Democrat race (yeah, thanks superdelegates) but there are still enough delegates out there for Bernie to win. Bernie is the far more popular candidate in the battle of the political outsiders. Most polls put Bernie as the clear winner, citing a bigger margin of victory than the Clinton/Trump race. However, Bernie’s viral popularity may spell disaster for Hillary, with numerous Sanders supporters potentially staying at home on November 8th, rather than backing the Democrats. However, overall, Bernie is slated to win against all current GOP candidates, whereas Hillary is down to beat Trump, tie with Cruz and actually lose to Kasich.

How do you think the race for President will end up? How do you think a brokered Republican convention would go? Let me know!